Guotai Junan: Sound the horn of steady growth and start the carnival of periodic products
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Original title: Sound the horn of steady growth and start the carnival of cyclic products | Monarch Research Source: Guotai Junan Securities research counter-cyclical policy “fire power”, infrastructure investment accumulation is about to start, and resumption of production and production are proceeding in an orderly manner.
Thanks to many positives, yesterday, the cyclic product relay technology stocks became the “Dinghaishenzhen” of the A-share market.
When the impact of the epidemic on the macro economy is gradually emerging, and the spread of overseas epidemics may lead to severe and severe exports, fiscal and monetary policies will have a “double-track growth”
, which has become a consensus in the market.
In this regard, Guotai Junan Building Materials, Construction, Steel, Real Estate, Transportation, Coal, and the six major cycles of the industry and the macro team have successively released reports that “from a perspective, changes in the economic structure will continue to be in the direction of favorable cycle products.
2020 cycle recycling is on the way.
Cement, steel structure, steel, coal, real estate, delivery.
The 01 counter-cyclical contraction continues to increase. Even with the impact of the epidemic, decision-makers are still very determined to complete the 2020 economic task.
”We still have to adhere to this year’s economic and social development goals and tasks. The Party Central Committee’s decision on the economic and social development status must be completed. The tasks and tasks set by the Party Central Committee must be completed.
——From the meeting of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on February 3, the epidemic situation was concentrated in the first quarter, and the biggest damage was consumption.
Correspondingly, investment and some consumption are recognized as moving backward.
Against the backdrop that the epidemic has affected macroeconomic operations, the need for infrastructure and real estate to hedge the economic downturn has been greatly strengthened.
How to do it?
Guotai Junan’s macro team believes that there are two grabbers: the first 深圳桑拿网 grabber-the start of infrastructure construction, and the support of diversified funds. First, major projects will become an important grabber of the infrastructure tide.
At present, the per capita infrastructure stock is equivalent to 20% -30% of the existing in the West, and there is still much room for improvement.
The February 21 Political Bureau meeting is committed to proactive fiscal policy to be more proactive, play a role in policy finance, actively expand effective demand, and play a key role in effective investment.
Second, major projects will be mainly focused on multi-level infrastructure in line with national strategies, focusing on supporting facilities to improve economic scale development under new indicators, and focusing on improving people’s livelihood and high-tech manufacturing projects.
Third, the expansion of funding sources for major project construction mainly comes from three aspects.
The first is the expansion of special debt and the increase in the proportion of investment in infrastructure; the second is the reduction in the capital ratio of new infrastructure projects; the third is the increase in credit support by policy banks.
Local governments are also actively increasing the scale of investment in major projects in 2020.
▼ Counter-cyclical compression continues to increase Source of data: Government website, Guotai Junan Securities Research’s second catchment-Real estate breakthrough margins can be expected, especially on the financing side Although the mortgage rate should fall by 5bp after the LPR is reduced, real estate financial policies must be maintainedContinuity, but also said that it will keep the level of personal housing loan interest rates basically stable.
However, we believe that real estate breakthroughs are expected to relax marginally.
If tightness and looseness are the two extremes of the degree of compression, then the current pointer should be swinging towards the middle value, that is, to maintain stability, but not to stimulate.
The capital chain of real estate companies is severely strained, and bond financing may be moderately relaxed.
In addition, various regions have introduced real estate buffer measures.
The supply side, for example, reduces the payment of land transfer fees, delays in payment, lowers the pre-sale standard, and guides the modest increase in credit; the demand side, for example, supplements the purchase deed tax.
▼ Provincial and municipal housing-related support data Sources: Websites of provinces, municipalities, and land associations, Guotai Junan Securities Research 02 Resumption of production and resumption of infrastructure. Starting from February 10, local governments have fully promoted enterprises to resume production and resume production, and downstream demand is gradually recovering.
Recently, a large number of major projects in Shandong, Hebei, Hunan, etc. have resumed or started construction, and we observe that newly started projects are basically concentrated in infrastructure areas such as transportation.
1. North China: The first batch of 21 key projects in Xiong’an New District resumed work On February 10, according to the Economic Reference News, the first batch of 21 key projects in Xiong’an New District of Hebei resumed work. It is estimated that 2,000 people will enter the site that day.
The first batch of resumption projects mainly consisted of 6 non-stop projects and 15 resumption projects during the Spring Festival. The inspection and acceptance on February 15th were completed and all work was officially resumed. It is expected that more than 6,000 reworkers will be on the site by the end of February.
▼ Xiongan New District “Four vertical and two horizontal” high-speed rail network Data source: Government official website, Guotai Junan Securities Research 2, East China: Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas fully resumed work On February 14, 13 major transportation projects in Jiangsu Province resumed work, including railwaysThere are 3 projects, 2 expressways, 2 cross-river passages, 1 trunk road in the common country and province, and 5 port projects.
As of February 13, a total of 39 key projects in Zhejiang Province have resumed work.
▼ The railway crossover project has been approved to accelerate since December 2019 and is mainly concentrated in the eastern region. Data sources: government official website, Guotai Junan Securities Research. At the same time, we have noticed that the construction of the eastern railway is accelerating.
In December 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission intensively approved multiple rail transit and high-speed rail construction projects in the eastern region, and continued to promote the integration of the Yangtze River Delta.
In 2019, the planning project of “Inter-city Railway Construction Plan for Jiangsu Along the River Agglomeration (2019-2025)” was approved, involving an investment of 378.6 billion yuan.
Simply, the “Plan for the Third Phase of Construction of Hefei Urban Rail Transit (2019-2024)” is also being submitted for approval. The construction project includes 6 lines including Line 2 east extension and Line 3 south extension.The -5 line is combined to form a rail transit network system in Hefei, which eases the traffic pressure on mature passenger corridors in the main urban area, with a total length of 149.
11 kilometers, with a total investment of 1031.
4.7 billion yuan.
3. South China: Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has the potential to increase demand and the division of the world-class Greater Bay Area. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area still has obvious shortcomings in infrastructure, especially transportation. The construction of the Greater Bay Area is expected to accelerate in 2020.
As of January 2020, the total amount of major infrastructure projects under construction in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has exceeded 100 billion yuan. We judge that with the introduction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area plan and the start of a series of major projects, infrastructure investment is expected to continue to rise.
▼ Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area important construction projects or infrastructural projects Data source: Websites of provincial development and reform commissions, Guotai Junan Securities Research (03) Periodic steady growth, which areas deserve attention?
【建材】水泥是“最好”的周期品 国泰君安建材团队认为，水泥产能可随时关停且产品不可库存，短腿产品对点状需求复苏最为敏感，若后面出现点状需求恢复并赶工，则The elasticity of cement will lead the elasticity of periodic products.
At present, the reservoir location in Central and South China is about 60%, and North China is still in the traditional off-season with most peak shifts. Due to the implementation of differentiated peak shift policies and enhanced environmental protection, the order of peak shifts has improved compared to 18 years.
For cement, the epidemic situation does not change the core recommendation logic of Guotai Junan’s building materials team—mining the supply of cement and the contraction of supply. Cement is the best cycle product in the post-industrial era.
【建筑】钢结构将是建筑行业的第三次α翻倍行情 从宏观角度来讲，国内钢结构的渗透率只有7%，而发达国家达到30%，政策支持和技术优化的驱动下，总There have been three changes in package / assembly / technology, which will help increase penetration.
Further reading: “Secret Weapons” that help Huoshanshan Hospital to complete the project quickly. From a meso perspective, the demand side of steel structures benefits from the urbanization of the population such as medical care and education, as well as the demand for consumer and industrial upgrades. Technical advantages and financial strength will driveThe supply side, that is, the concentration of steel structure enterprises has increased.
At the micro level, the three major business models of general contracting / manufacturing / e-commerce for steel structure companies have all been upgraded, and the market has not yet fully recognized the huge performance elasticity of general contracting.
Finally, judging from the historical performance of the capital market, the first alpha market in the construction industry came from the decorative plate represented by Golden Mantis, and the second was the garden PPP plate represented by Oriental Garden.
At present, the Guotai Junan construction team estimates that the compound growth rate of the performance of the leading steel structure companies is about 40%, but generally the PE valuation is only in its early 10x. Compared with the previous two alpha prices, the current PE valuation has tripled.space.
1% and -6.
3%), this is the only year in the history of China ‘s real estate that has seen a negative year-on-year increase in sales, and because of the large number of risk events in this real estate company.
However, considering that the current corporate leverage ratio is much larger than the previous two years, the impact of the downward sales will be greater.
The review of the policy sequence in 2008: the currency will be loose in September, the administrative will be relaxed in October, and the non-standard will be relaxed in December.
China’s economic growth in 2008 saw a cliff-like decline, from 2007 to 14.
The growth rate of 2% fell to 9.2008.
Starting in September, the central bank lowered the benchmark deposit interest rate four times, lowered the loan interest rate five times, and lowered the reserve requirement ratio three times; in October, the Ministry of Finance began to reduce the real estate transaction tax and began to issue relevant documents on housing preferential policies; 12Monthly support policies for real estate finance were introduced.
The review of the policy sequence in 2014: the currency was loose in April, the administration was relaxed in June, and direct financing was liberalized. The non-standard end of the year was slightly loose (but still overall tight).
In 2014, GDP showed a gradual decline. The central bank ‘s monetary policy was a hedge against the downward pressure on the economy. Since April, it has cut the target twice and cut the interest rate once. In the face of continued downward sales and development investment, the second line led by Hohhot in JuneThe city’s purchase restriction policy was gradually loosened, and 930 new loan restrictions were cancelled. Although direct financing (refinancing and corporate bond restart) was relaxed in 2014, it continued to tighten non-standard financing until the end of the year to hedge the downward pressure on the economy.Relaxed.
The real estate companies have severely differentiated in these two periods: 1) During the downturn of the market, the company’s operations have shifted from financialization to productization, paying more attention to its product positioning and competitiveness, and diversified marketing strategies have begun to emerge; 2) Reduce land acquisition in first-tier cities to control the total amount of risk, and at the same time pay more attention to the distribution and strategy on the map, and the characteristics of regional intensive cultivation; 3) The financing channels have been greatly expanded, from open market financing to non-standard financing;For non-leading companies, a large number of bad situations occurred in 2008, and more transformation companies appeared in 2014. For 2020, Guotai Junan Real Estate team tends to believe that a large number of industry integrations have occurred.
In response to this epidemic, the current round of easing will be similar to 2008 and 14 respectively, with currency first, administration behind China, and non-standard halls.
According to historical deductions, the month of monetary policy relaxation is T (February 2020), then you will see administrative easing around T + March (May) and non-T & A around T + August (October).Standards are loose, with overall monetary policy first and administrative policies gradually relaxing after the Chinese and non-standard easing.
This will benefit high-quality real estate companies with low leverage, as well as companies that have just started financing.
[Iron and Steel]Downstream demand ushering in a rebound. From the perspective of steel transaction, the epidemic caused steel demand to basically stagnate in February, but the epidemic made demand postponed rather than eliminated.
Guotai Junan Steel’s team expects that after the epidemic is under control, there is a high probability of rushing downstream, and steel demand may erupt.
Overlapping policies are warmer, and the later demand for steel may exceed market expectations.
▼ 疫情有效控制后 下游需求将迎来反弹（万吨/天）数据来源：Mysteel，国泰君安证券研究 此外，1月23日，国家发改委、工信部发布《关于完善钢铁产能置换和项目备案工作的通知》, Requiring all regions to no longer publicize and announce new steel capacity replacement programs and no new steel projects from January 24, 2020. This policy is at the core of the mid- and long-term industry development trend, and the industry will add new information in disguise.The production capacity is controlled, which has a profound impact on the industry structure and supply and demand.
【煤炭】复工启动&库存新低，价格维持强势 3月开始下游将迎来集中复工，而当前焦煤上下游库存均创新低，国泰君安煤炭团队预计，未来有望看到钢厂螺纹库存去化与钢厂/ Coking plant replenishment at the same time, bullish on coking coal prices.
The valuation of the coking coal sector has fallen to 0.
About 8 times the historical low level of PB. As the demand for counter-cyclical adjustment of power generation picks up, the market’s concerns about decline in performance and impairment will gradually be eliminated.
▼ The coking coal sector PB recently 0.
8倍左右 创历史新低数据来源：wind、国泰君安证券研究 【交运】3月份是港口主题投资时机 过去十年，A股港口板块的分红比例不高，估值却长期高企，股息率不足以吸引Long-term investors.
The rise of port stocks is mainly driven by changes in valuations, while short-term valuation increases are mainly catalyzed by themed investment opportunities.
The four themed investment opportunities in the port industry lasted about a month, and the industry index rose by 25% to 50%.
Port companies have more thematic opportunities, and the growth rate of 7 representative companies has exceeded 50%.A port may involve multiple themes, and the same theme may be fermented multiple times, thereby forming more theme investment opportunities.
But almost every time the theme style retreats, the stock price will enter a longer period of decline.
The 2020 epidemic led to a general delay in the start of infrastructure construction. Rushing may occur after the start of construction. The dry bulk ports have the fundamental support of the theme investment.
The Guotai Junan transportation team believes that the relative estimates of PE and PB in the port sector are at the bottom 1% of the history, and the absolute value of individual companies does have a certain safety margin.
▼ PE in the port industry is at the bottom of history. High margin of data Source: Wind, Guotai Junan Securities Research